Country Resilience Index

The WorldMonitor Country Resilience Index (CRI) scores every country in the world on a 0-100 scale, combining long-run structural capacity with current operational stress to produce an actionable resilience metric. Rather than relying on static country risk ratings, the CRI updates every 6 hours from official and authoritative sources and exposes full provenance, coverage, and imputation context so analysts can see exactly why a score moved and how much of it is real data versus imputed. This document is the v1.0 reference for the live product. A planned v2.0 upgrade will rebuild the top-level shape into three pillars (structural readiness, live shock exposure, recovery capacity) with a partly non-compensatory aggregation, and ship an annual Reference Edition at citation quality. That work is tracked in a separate reference-grade upgrade plan and is not yet shipped; everything documented below describes the current shipping behavior.

In the dashboard

CRI is surfaced across three places in the product, all driven from the same v1.0 score described below:

Resilience widget — a standalone panel (component: src/components/ResilienceWidget.ts) that ranks countries by resilience score with filter and search affordances. Reach it from Cmd+K by typing resilience.
Country Deep-Dive — inside the per-country drill-down panel, CRI appears alongside CII (Country Instability Index) as a structural complement to the short-horizon stress signal. CII and CRI are intentionally not interchangeable: CII answers “how much stress is on this country right now?”; CRI answers “how well-positioned is this country to absorb and recover from shocks?”
Map choropleth — the resilience score drives a country-level choropleth layer on the main map. Toggle it from the map’s layer panel or via Cmd+K.

All three surfaces are free to view. The underlying data served at /api/resilience/v1/* is public; see Resilience service for the HTTP contract.

Overview

The WorldMonitor Country Resilience Index scores 222 countries on a 0-100 scale across 5 domains and 13 dimensions. It combines structural baseline indicators (governance quality, health infrastructure, fiscal capacity) with real-time stress signals (cyber threats, conflict events, shipping disruption) to produce a single resilience score updated every 6 hours. Data is sourced from official and authoritative providers: World Bank, IMF, WHO, WTO, OFAC, UNHCR, UCDP, BIS, IEA, FAO, Reporters Sans Frontieres, and the Institute for Economics and Peace, among others.

Domains and Weights

The index is organized into 5 domains. Each domain weight reflects its relative contribution to overall national resilience.

Domain	ID	Weight	Dimensions
Economic	`economic`	0.22	Macro-Fiscal, Currency & External, Trade & Sanctions
Infrastructure	`infrastructure`	0.20	Cyber & Digital, Logistics & Supply, Infrastructure
Energy	`energy`	0.15	Energy
Social & Governance	`social-governance`	0.25	Governance, Social Cohesion, Border Security, Information
Health & Food	`health-food`	0.18	Health & Public Service, Food & Water

Weights sum to 1.00.

Dimensions and Indicators

Each dimension is scored from 0-100 using a weighted blend of its sub-metrics. Below is the complete indicator registry.

Economic Domain (weight 0.22)

Macro-Fiscal

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
govRevenuePct	Government revenue as % of GDP (IMF GGR_G01_GDP_PT)	Higher is better	5 - 45	0.50	IMF	Annual
debtGrowthRate	Annual debt growth rate	Lower is better	20 - 0	0.20	National debt data	Annual
currentAccountPct	Current account balance as % of GDP (IMF)	Higher is better	-20 - 20	0.30	IMF	Annual

Currency & External

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
fxVolatility	Annualized BIS real effective exchange rate volatility	Lower is better	50 - 0	0.60	BIS	Monthly
fxDeviation	Absolute deviation of BIS real EER from equilibrium (100)	Lower is better	35 - 0	0.25	BIS	Monthly
fxReservesAdequacy	Total reserves in months of imports (World Bank FI.RES.TOTL.MO)	Higher is better	1 - 12	0.15	World Bank	Annual

For non-BIS countries (~160 countries), a fallback chain applies: (1) IMF inflation + World Bank reserves proxy, (2) IMF inflation alone, (3) reserves alone, (4) conservative imputation (score 50, certainty 0.3).

Trade & Sanctions

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
sanctionCount	OFAC sanctions entity count; piecewise normalization	Lower is better	200 - 0	0.45	OFAC	Daily
tradeRestrictions	WTO trade restrictions count (IN_FORCE weighted 3x)	Lower is better	30 - 0	0.15	WTO	Weekly
tradeBarriers	WTO trade barrier notifications count	Lower is better	40 - 0	0.15	WTO	Weekly
appliedTariffRate	Applied tariff rate, weighted mean, all products (World Bank TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS)	Lower is better	20 - 0	0.25	World Bank	Annual

Sanctions use piecewise normalization: 0 entities = score 100, 1-10 = 90-75, 11-50 = 75-50, 51-200 = 50-25, 201+ tapers toward 0.

Infrastructure Domain (weight 0.20)

Cyber & Digital

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
cyberThreats	Severity-weighted cyber threat count (critical 3x, high 2x, medium 1x, low 0.5x)	Lower is better	25 - 0	0.45	Cyber threat feeds	Daily
internetOutages	Internet outage penalty (total 4x, major 2x, partial 1x)	Lower is better	20 - 0	0.35	Outage monitoring	Realtime
gpsJamming	GPS jamming hex penalty (high 3x, medium 1x)	Lower is better	20 - 0	0.20	GPSJam	Daily

Logistics & Supply

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
roadsPavedLogistics	Paved roads as % of total road network (World Bank IS.ROD.PAVE.ZS)	Higher is better	0 - 100	0.50	World Bank	Annual
shippingStress	Global shipping stress score	Lower is better	100 - 0	0.25	Supply-chain monitor	Daily
transitDisruption	Mean transit corridor disruption	Lower is better	30 - 0	0.25	Transit summaries	Daily

Infrastructure

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
electricityAccess	Access to electricity, % of population (World Bank EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS)	Higher is better	40 - 100	0.40	World Bank	Annual
roadsPavedInfra	Paved roads as % of total road network (World Bank IS.ROD.PAVE.ZS)	Higher is better	0 - 100	0.35	World Bank	Annual
infraOutages	Internet outage penalty (shared source with Cyber & Digital)	Lower is better	20 - 0	0.25	Outage monitoring	Realtime

Note on the paved-roads indicator. The same World Bank series (IS.ROD.PAVE.ZS) feeds two dimensions inside the Infrastructure domain: roadsPavedLogistics under Logistics & Supply (weight 0.50 within the dimension) and roadsPavedInfra here under Infrastructure (weight 0.35 within the dimension). This is deliberate source reuse, not accidental double counting: Logistics & Supply uses paved-road coverage as a proxy for transit viability, while Infrastructure uses it as a proxy for baseline public capital stock. The two dimensions legitimately care about the same signal for different reasons, and each dimension’s contribution to the domain is further mediated by the dimension weight in coverage-weighted mean aggregation (see the Scoring Formula section). The v2.0 reference-grade upgrade plan is expected to consolidate shared upstream signals into a single indicator registry so this kind of reuse is documented at the source level rather than per-dimension; for v1.0 the two separate metric rows are preserved for backward compatibility.

Energy Domain (weight 0.15)

Energy

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
energyImportDependency	IEA energy import dependency (% of supply from imports)	Lower is better	100 - 0	0.25	IEA	Annual
gasShare	Natural gas share of energy mix	Lower is better	100 - 0	0.12	Energy mix data	Annual
coalShare	Coal share of energy mix	Lower is better	100 - 0	0.08	Energy mix data	Annual
renewShare	Renewable energy share of energy mix	Higher is better	0 - 100	0.05	Energy mix data	Annual
gasStorageStress	Gas storage fill stress: (80 - fillPct) / 80, clamped [0,1]	Lower is better	100 - 0	0.10	GIE AGSI+	Daily
energyPriceStress	Mean absolute energy price change across commodities	Lower is better	25 - 0	0.10	Energy prices	Daily
electricityConsumption	Per-capita electricity consumption (kWh/year, World Bank EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC)	Higher is better	200 - 8000	0.30	World Bank	Annual

Governance

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
wgiVoiceAccountability	World Bank WGI: Voice and Accountability	Higher is better	-2.5 - 2.5	1/6	World Bank WGI	Annual
wgiPoliticalStability	World Bank WGI: Political Stability	Higher is better	-2.5 - 2.5	1/6	World Bank WGI	Annual
wgiGovernmentEffectiveness	World Bank WGI: Government Effectiveness	Higher is better	-2.5 - 2.5	1/6	World Bank WGI	Annual
wgiRegulatoryQuality	World Bank WGI: Regulatory Quality	Higher is better	-2.5 - 2.5	1/6	World Bank WGI	Annual
wgiRuleOfLaw	World Bank WGI: Rule of Law	Higher is better	-2.5 - 2.5	1/6	World Bank WGI	Annual
wgiControlOfCorruption	World Bank WGI: Control of Corruption	Higher is better	-2.5 - 2.5	1/6	World Bank WGI	Annual

All six WGI indicators are equally weighted.

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
gpiScore	Global Peace Index score	Lower is better	3.6 - 1.0	0.55	IEP	Annual
displacementTotal	UNHCR total displaced persons (log10 scale)	Lower is better	7 - 0	0.25	UNHCR	Annual
unrestEvents	Severity-weighted unrest events + sqrt(fatalities)	Lower is better	20 - 0	0.20	Unrest monitoring	Realtime

Border Security

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
ucdpConflict	UCDP armed conflict: eventCount*2 + typeWeight + sqrt(deaths)	Lower is better	30 - 0	0.65	UCDP	Realtime
displacementHosted	UNHCR hosted displaced persons (log10 scale)	Lower is better	7 - 0	0.35	UNHCR	Annual

Information & Cognitive

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
rsfPressFreedom	RSF press freedom score	Higher is better	0 - 100	0.55	RSF	Annual
socialVelocity	Reddit social velocity (log10(velocity+1))	Lower is better	3 - 0	0.15	Reddit intelligence	Realtime
newsThreatScore	AI news threat severity (critical 4x, high 2x, medium 1x, low 0.5x)	Lower is better	20 - 0	0.30	News threat analysis	Daily

Health & Food Domain (weight 0.18)

Health & Public Service

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
uhcIndex	WHO Universal Health Coverage service coverage index	Higher is better	40 - 90	0.45	WHO	Annual
measlesCoverage	Measles immunization coverage among 1-year-olds (%)	Higher is better	50 - 99	0.35	WHO	Annual
hospitalBeds	Hospital beds per 1,000 people	Higher is better	0 - 8	0.20	WHO	Annual

Food & Water

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
ipcPeopleInCrisis	IPC/FAO people in food crisis (log10 scale)	Lower is better	7 - 0	0.45	FAO/IPC	Annual
ipcPhase	IPC food crisis phase (1-5)	Lower is better	5 - 1	0.15	FAO/IPC	Annual
aquastatWaterStress	FAO AQUASTAT water stress/withdrawal/dependency (%)	Lower is better	100 - 0	0.25	FAO AQUASTAT	Annual
aquastatWaterAvailability	FAO AQUASTAT water availability (m3/capita)	Higher is better	0 - 5000	0.15	FAO AQUASTAT	Annual

Recovery Domain (weight 1.0)

This domain forms the recovery-capacity pillar. It measures a country’s ability to bounce back from an acute shock along fiscal, monetary, trade, institutional, and energy dimensions.

Fiscal Space

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
recoveryGovRevenue	Government revenue as % of GDP (IMF GGR_G01_GDP_PT)	Higher is better	5 - 45	0.40	IMF	Annual
recoveryFiscalBalance	General government net lending/borrowing as % of GDP (IMF GGXCNL_G01_GDP_PT)	Higher is better	-15 - 5	0.30	IMF	Annual
recoveryDebtToGdp	General government gross debt as % of GDP (IMF GGXWDG_NGDP_PT)	Lower is better	150 - 0	0.30	IMF	Annual

Reserve Adequacy

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
recoveryReserveMonths	Total reserves in months of imports (World Bank FI.RES.TOTL.MO)	Higher is better	1 - 18	1.00	World Bank	Annual

External Debt Coverage

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
recoveryDebtToReserves	Short-term external debt to reserves ratio (World Bank DT.DOD.DSTC.CD / FI.RES.TOTL.CD)	Lower is better	5 - 0	1.00	World Bank	Annual

Import Concentration

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
recoveryImportHhi	Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of import partner concentration (UN Comtrade HS2 bilateral)	Lower is better	5000 - 0	1.00	UN Comtrade	Annual

State Continuity

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
recoveryWgiContinuity	Mean WGI score as institutional durability proxy	Higher is better	-2.5 - 2.5	0.50	World Bank	Annual
recoveryConflictPressure	UCDP conflict metric inverted to state continuity	Lower is better	30 - 0	0.30	UCDP	Realtime
recoveryDisplacementVelocity	UNHCR displacement as state continuity signal	Lower is better	7 - 0	0.20	UNHCR	Annual

State continuity is a derived dimension: it reads from existing WGI, UCDP, and displacement keys rather than a dedicated seeder.

Fuel Stock Days

Indicator	Description	Direction	Goalposts (worst-best)	Weight	Source	Cadence
recoveryFuelStockDays	Days of fuel stock cover (IEA Oil Stocks / EIA Weekly Petroleum Status)	Higher is better	0 - 120	1.00	IEA/EIA	Monthly

Fuel stock days is an Enrichment-tier signal (coverage ~45 countries, IEA/OECD members). Countries without fuel stock data are imputed with the unmonitored class.

Normalization

All indicators are normalized to a 0-100 scale using goalpost scaling (also called min-max normalization with domain-specific anchors). For “higher is better” indicators:

score = clamp((value - worst) / (best - worst) * 100, 0, 100)

For “lower is better” indicators:

score = clamp((worst - value) / (worst - best) * 100, 0, 100)

Goalposts are hand-picked based on empirical data ranges (not percentile-derived). A score of 100 means the country meets or exceeds the “best” goalpost; 0 means it meets or exceeds the “worst” goalpost. Exception: Sanctions use piecewise normalization to capture the non-linear impact of sanctions counts (the first few sanctions matter more than additional ones in already-sanctioned countries).

Scoring Formula

Dimension Score

Each dimension score is the weighted blend of its sub-metric scores:

dimensionScore = sum(metricScore_i * metricWeight_i) / sum(metricWeight_i)

Only metrics with available data participate in the blend. Missing metrics are excluded from both the numerator and denominator, so the score reflects what is known rather than penalizing for absent data.

Domain Score

Each domain score is the coverage-weighted mean of its dimensions:

domainScore = sum(dimensionScore_i * dimensionCoverage_i) / sum(dimensionCoverage_i)

Coverage weighting ensures that dimensions with sparse data (low coverage) contribute proportionally less, preventing a low-coverage dimension from dragging the domain average down.

Overall Score

The overall score is a domain-weighted sum:

overallScore = sum(domainScore_i * domainWeight_i)

Each domain’s weight is defined in the configuration. The weights sum to 1.0, so the overall score is a straightforward weighted average of domain scores. This is the post-PR #2847 formula; an earlier multiplicative form (baseline * (1 - stressFactor)) over-penalized every country and was reverted. See the Changelog for the full version history.

Resilience Level Classification

Score Range	Level
70-100	High
40-69	Medium
0-39	Low

Missing Data Handling

Coverage Tracking

Each dimension carries a coverage value (0.0-1.0) representing the weighted certainty of its data. Real observed data contributes certainty 1.0. Imputed data contributes partial certainty. Absent data contributes 0.

coverage = sum(metricWeight_i * certainty_i) / sum(metricWeight_i)

Imputation Taxonomy

When data is absent, the system tags it with one of four classes so downstream consumers can distinguish “nothing is happening” from “we do not know” from “the upstream is down” from “the dimension does not apply to this country.” The taxonomy is defined in server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_dimension-scorers.ts as an exported ImputationClass type.

Class	Meaning	Typical score	Certainty	Example sources
`stable-absence`	The source publishes globally. Country is not listed, which means the tracked phenomenon is not happening. Strong positive signal.	85 to 88	0.6 to 0.7	IPC food crisis, UNHCR displacement, UCDP conflict events
`unmonitored`	The source is a curated list that may not cover every country. Absence is ambiguous; penalized conservatively.	50 to 60	0.3 to 0.4	BIS exchange rates and credit, WTO trade data, OECD ICU capacity
`source-failure`	The upstream API was unavailable at seed time. Detected from `seed-meta` `failedDatasets`. Should be rare and transient.	inherits from the source being substituted	0.3 to 0.5	any source listed in `failedDatasets` during a seed run
`not-applicable`	The dimension is structurally N/A for this country. For example, a landlocked country has no maritime exposure.	neutral, by definition	1.0 (by definition)	reserved for future dimensions that need structural N/A handling

The generic imputation entries are declared in the IMPUTATION table and shared across dimensions. Per-metric overrides live in the IMPUTE table with their own score and certainty values, and inherit or override the class tag. Every entry is regression-tested in tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts to prevent silent drift.

Concrete imputation entry	Class	Score	Certainty	Notes
`crisis_monitoring_absent` (IPC, UCDP, UNHCR general)	`stable-absence`	85	0.7	Used when the global crisis feed has no entry for the country
`curated_list_absent` (BIS, WTO general)	`unmonitored`	50	0.3	Used when a curated list does not cover the country
`ipcFood` (food-specific crisis monitoring)	`stable-absence`	88	0.7	Slightly higher score because no IPC data strongly implies food security
`wtoData` (trade-specific curated list)	`unmonitored`	60	0.4	Slightly higher than the generic curated list default
`unhcrDisplacement` (displacement-specific crisis monitoring)	`stable-absence`	85	0.6	Lower certainty than IPC because displacement is noisier
`bisEer` and `bisCredit`	`unmonitored`	50	0.3	Shared reference to `curated_list_absent`; same tag

The source-failure class is reserved for the runtime path that consults seed-meta.failedDatasets and re-tags affected imputations; that wiring lands with a later Phase 1 task and is not yet represented in the table above. The not-applicable class is reserved for future dimensions and has no current call site.

Low Confidence Flag

A score is flagged as lowConfidence when either:

Average dimension coverage falls below 0.55, or
Imputation share (imputed weight / total weight) exceeds 0.40.

Grey-Out Threshold

Countries with overall coverage below 0.40 are greyed out in the UI and excluded from rankings. Their scores are too data-sparse to be meaningful. The API response includes imputationShare (0.0-1.0), representing the fraction of total indicator weight that came from imputed (synthetic) data rather than observed data. This allows consumers to assess data provenance.

Data Sources

Source	Indicators	Cadence	Scope
IMF (WEO/IFS)	Government revenue, current account, inflation	Annual	Global
World Bank (WDI)	Electricity access, paved roads, reserves, tariffs, electricity consumption	Annual	Global
World Bank (WGI)	6 governance indicators	Annual	Global
BIS	Real effective exchange rates	Monthly	~60 countries
OFAC	Sanctions entity counts	Daily	Global
WTO	Trade restrictions, trade barriers	Weekly	~50 reporters
WHO	UHC index, measles coverage, hospital beds	Annual	Global
FAO (IPC)	People in food crisis, crisis phase	Annual	Affected countries
FAO (AQUASTAT)	Water stress, water availability	Annual	Global
IEA	Energy import dependency	Annual	Global
IEP	Global Peace Index	Annual	Global
RSF	Press freedom score	Annual	Global
UNHCR	Displaced persons, hosted refugees	Annual	Affected countries
UCDP	Armed conflict events, fatalities	Realtime	Global
Cyber threat feeds	Severity-weighted cyber threats	Daily	Global
Outage monitoring	Internet outages	Realtime	Global
GPSJam	GPS jamming incidents	Daily	Global
Supply-chain monitor	Shipping stress, transit disruption	Daily	Global
Unrest monitoring	Severity-weighted civil unrest events	Realtime	Global
Reddit intelligence	Social velocity scores	Realtime	Global
News threat analysis	AI-scored news threat severity	Daily	Global
Energy mix data	Gas, coal, renewable shares	Annual	Global
GIE AGSI+	Gas storage fill levels	Daily	European countries
Energy prices	Commodity price changes	Daily	Global
National debt data	Debt-to-GDP growth rate	Annual	Global

Supplementary Fields

The API response includes additional context fields that are informational and not part of the primary ranking:

baselineScore: Coverage-weighted mean of baseline and mixed dimensions. Reflects structural capacity (governance, health, infrastructure, fiscal strength). Informational only, not used in overallScore.
stressScore: Coverage-weighted mean of stress and mixed dimensions. Reflects current threat environment (cyber, conflict, sanctions, supply disruption). Informational only, not used in overallScore.
trend: Direction of score movement over the last 30 days (improving, stable, or declining), based on daily score history.
change30d: Numeric score change over 30 days.
imputationShare: Fraction of indicator weight from imputed (synthetic) data.
lowConfidence: Boolean flag when data coverage or imputation thresholds are breached.

Versioning

Cache keys include a versioned suffix that is bumped on formula changes. This invalidates stale caches and ensures all scores reflect the updated methodology. Score cache TTL is 6 hours.

Reproducibility Appendix

The CRI is designed to be auditable end-to-end: given the Redis snapshot at any point in time, a reader should be able to reproduce any published country score from the documented formulas without running the live service.

Redis keys used by the scorer

Key	Type	TTL	Written by	Read by
`resilience:score:v9:{countryCode}`	JSON	6 hours	`buildResilienceScore` in `server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts`	`getResilienceScore` handler
`resilience:ranking:v9`	JSON	6 hours	`buildResilienceRanking`, only when all countries are scored	`getResilienceRanking` handler
`resilience:history:v4:{countryCode}`	sorted set	indefinite, trimmed to 30 days	`appendHistory` during scoring	trend and `change30d` computation
`resilience:intervals:v1:{countryCode}`	JSON	6 hours	`scripts/seed-resilience-intervals.mjs`	`getResilienceScore` (optional `scoreInterval` field)
`seed-meta:resilience:static`	JSON	2 hours	`scripts/seed-resilience-static.mjs` at the end of each successful seed run	scorer for `dataVersion` population, health checks
`resilience:static:{countryCode}`	JSON	400 days	`scripts/seed-resilience-static.mjs`	scorer for all baseline signals (WGI, WHO, FAO, GPI, RSF, and so on)
`resilience:static:index:v1`	JSON	400 days	`scripts/seed-resilience-static.mjs`	warmup path to enumerate countries

dataVersion semantics

The dataVersion field on every GetResilienceScoreResponse is the ISO date of the fetchedAt timestamp stored in seed-meta:resilience:static. It reflects the most recent successful run of the Railway static-seed job; the widget renders it in the footer as Data YYYY-MM-DD.

Reproducing a score by hand

Given a Redis snapshot at time T:

Read seed-meta:resilience:static for the dataVersion.
Read resilience:static:{cc} for the country’s baseline record (WGI, WHO, GPI, RSF, FAO, IEA, and so on).
Read the live-signal keys (UCDP, UNHCR, OFAC, outages, cyber threats, prices, shipping stress, and so on) for the country’s slice.
For each of the 13 dimensions, apply the formulas in the Scoring Formula section with the goalposts from the Dimensions and Indicators tables. For missing signals, consult the Imputation Taxonomy table in this document.
Aggregate dimension scores into domain scores via coverage-weighted mean.
Aggregate domain scores into the overall score via domain-weighted sum.

A reference Python notebook under docs/methodology/country-resilience-index/reference-edition/ is tracked as a future deliverable and will regenerate every published score from the snapshot manifest.

Changelog

v1.0 (April 2026)

Baseline. Scored on domain-weighted average of 5 domains and 13 dimensions.

PR #2821: added the baseline-vs-stress engine and the dataVersion field on the response.
PR #2847: reverted the overall-score formula from baseline * (1 - stressFactor) (which over-penalized every country) to a domain-weighted sum; fixed the RSF press-freedom direction (0 means free, scored higher is better).
PR #2858: seed script now computes missing country scores directly via the scorer import path instead of relying on a separate ranking writer.

v1.1 (April 2026) — Phase 1 reference-grade upgrade

Previous published version. Phase 1 of the reference-grade upgrade plan (docs/internal/country-resilience-upgrade-plan.md). Methodology surface reorganized for full reproducibility without changing the top-line domain weights or scoring formula.

T1.1 (#2941): regression test pins the Norway/US top-of-ranking ordering after an origin-document claim of a 100-point ceiling did not reproduce. Failing-then-passing test guards the invariant.
T1.2 (#2847, #2858): pre-existing fixes from the 2026-04-07 and 2026-04-09 origin-doc reviews that were already in main at the start of Phase 1. Re-verified no additional action needed.
T1.3 (#2945): methodology page promoted to .mdx at CII parity with the required sections (Framework / Domains / Dimensions / Normalization / Weighting / Missing-data / Confidence / Ranking / Reproducibility appendix).
T1.4 (#2943): dataVersion field wired end-to-end from seed-resilience-static:v7.dataVersion through the scorer to the widget footer so analysts see the exact ISO date of the underlying source data.
T1.5 (#2947 foundation, #2961 propagation): three-level staleness classifier (fresh, aging, stale) driven by the per-indicator cadence in the registry. Propagated through scoreAllDimensions and exposed as ResilienceDimension.freshness.{lastObservedAtMs, staleness} on the response.
T1.6 (#2949 scaffold, #2962 full grid): per-dimension confidence grid in the widget. The full grid adds an imputation-class icon column (consuming T1.7 schema) and a freshness-badge column (consuming T1.5 propagation). 5-column layout with mobile responsive breakpoint.
T1.7 (#2944 foundation, #2959 schema, #2964 source-failure wiring): four-class imputation taxonomy stable-absence / unmonitored / source-failure / not-applicable exposed on ResilienceDimension.imputationClass. The scorer aggregation pass consults seed-meta:resilience:static.failedDatasets and re-tags imputed dimensions as source-failure when the underlying adapter fetch failed. Deleted the last absence-based return branch in scoreCurrencyExternal so the taxonomy is the single source of truth for every imputed path.
T1.8 (#2946): methodology doc linter enforces dimension parity between this document and _indicator-registry.ts. CI fails if any dimension drifts.
T1.9 (this PR): cache-key / health-registry sync regression test so future version bumps in _shared.ts cannot silently break health probes. No cache keys were bumped in Phase 1 because every schema addition was additive with default fallbacks on the existing resilience:score:v7 and resilience:ranking:v9 keys.

What did not change in v1.1: the domain-weighted aggregation formula, the 5 domain structure, the 13 dimensions, the goalpost ranges, the per-dimension weights. Phase 2 owns the structural three-pillar rebuild; v1.1 is the methodology-surface and observability lift only.

Scorecard (v1.1 self-assessment)

Self-assessed against the standard composite-indicator review axes on a 0-10 scale. This is the Phase 1 acceptance gate defined in the upgrade plan (Methodology ≥7.5, Explainability ≥7.5). An external expert review (Phase 3 T3.8b) will supersede these self-ratings once it completes.

Axis	Score	Rationale
Methodology	7.5	Every dimension has a named source, direction, goalpost range, weight, cadence, and imputation class. Missing-data rules are explicit and tagged with a 4-class taxonomy. The aggregation formula is a simple domain-weighted average, auditable from first principles. Gap: the overall-score formula is still single-axis compensatory (a strong institutional score can wash out a weak exposure score), which Phase 2 replaces with a partly non-compensatory three-pillar form.
Explainability	7.5	Per-dimension confidence grid in the widget shows coverage %, imputation class, and freshness for every dimension on every country. Tooltip text is generated from the taxonomy so analysts can click through to the meaning without reading this document. Gap: no waterfall chart of individual signal contributions yet, that lands in Phase 3 T3.3.
Reproducibility	8.0	Every dimension’s sourceKey, cadence, and goalpost lives in `_indicator-registry.ts` and is linted against this doc. Cache keys are versioned (`resilience:score:v7`, `ranking:v8`, `history:v4`). `dataVersion` is written by the seed and plumbed to the widget footer. Gap: the benchmark and backtest scripts do not yet run on a CI cron; those land in Phase 2 T2.7.
Source quality	7.0	World Bank, IMF, WHO, IEA, UNHCR, UCDP, IPC, BIS, FAO, RSF, GPI: all authoritative. Gap: curated-list sources (BIS ~40 economies, WTO) do not cover the full WorldMonitor country set, which is why the `unmonitored` imputation class exists. Phase 2 T2.9 adds language-normalized information signal to reduce English-press bias.
Timeliness	6.5	Structural sources are annual (WGI, GPI, RSF, WHO, IMF macro) and dominate the total weight of the index. BIS EER is monthly. The Freshness classifier (T1.5) surfaces this at the dimension level so users can see which parts of a country score are 12 months old. Thirteen stress-side indicators already run at realtime or daily cadence via the cross-source stack (`ucdpConflict`, `internetOutages`, `infraOutages`, `unrestEvents`, `socialVelocity` at realtime; `sanctionCount`, `cyberThreats`, `gpsJamming`, `shippingStress`, `transitDisruption`, `gasStorageStress`, `energyPriceStress`, `newsThreatScore` at daily). Gap: the live-shock pillar relies on those signals but the structural pillar is still capped by annual sources; Phase 2 T2.2 adds FX volatility at daily cadence to narrow the cadence gap on the currency-external dimension and the Phase 3 reference-edition split will formalize annual vs rolling cadences per pillar.
Sensitivity	7.0	Weight-perturbation Monte Carlo sensitivity (#2823) exists in the backtesting layer. Phase 1 did not add new sensitivity work. Gap: per-dimension p5/p95 intervals are computed and exposed (#2877, #2885) but the widget does not render them yet, Phase 3 T3.3 waterfall chart.

Phase 1 acceptance gate status: met. Both required thresholds (Methodology ≥7.5, Explainability ≥7.5) are satisfied with honest rationales. The two gaps flagged in each axis are tracked against Phase 2 and Phase 3 tasks in the upgrade plan.

v2.0 (April 2026) — Phase 2 structural rebuild

Current published version. Phase 2 of the reference-grade upgrade plan (docs/internal/country-resilience-upgrade-plan.md). Rebuilds the top-level shape from five flat domains into three pillars (structural readiness, live shock exposure, recovery capacity) with a partly non-compensatory aggregation, adds a recovery capacity pillar with six new dimensions, and ships a full validation suite (cross-index benchmark, outcome backtest, sensitivity analysis).

T2.1 (#2977): Three-pillar schema added to proto and OpenAPI. schemaVersion: "2.0" feature flag introduced with backward-compatible "1.0" fallback path for one release cycle. Response now carries a pillars array alongside existing domains.
T2.2a (#2979): Signal tiering registry committed. Every indicator tagged Core, Enrichment, or Experimental with per-signal coverage percentage and license audit status. Registry enforced by CI linter.
T2.2b (#2987): Recovery capacity pillar with 6 new dimensions across a new recovery domain: fiscal space (debt service ratio), reserve adequacy (months of imports), short-term external debt coverage, import concentration (HHI), hospital surge capacity, and state continuity composite (WGI subset). Five new seeders following Railway gold-standard pattern (3 real data sources, 2 stubs pending source configuration). Cache key bumped to the current version.
T2.3 (#2990): Three-pillar aggregation using penalized weighted mean. Pillar weights: structural readiness 0.40, live shock exposure 0.35, recovery capacity 0.25. Penalty factor (1 - alpha * max(0, pillar_gap / 100)) with alpha = 0.5. Domain-weighted scores feed into pillar scores; pillar-weighted scores feed into the overall score with the penalty applied when the gap between the strongest and weakest pillar exceeds a threshold.
T2.4 (#2985): Cross-index benchmark script validates each pillar against four established indices (INFORM Risk Index, ND-GAIN, WorldRiskIndex, Fragile States Index) via Spearman and Pearson correlation with per-pillar directional hypotheses. Results stored in resilience:benchmark:external:v1 and committed as validation artifacts.
T2.5 (#2986): Outcome backtest framework covering 7 event families (FX stress, sovereign stress, power outages, food-crisis escalation, refugee surges, sanctions shocks, conflict spillover). Each family has a binary event definition, a 2024-2025 hold-out window, and an AUC release gate of 0.75 or higher.
T2.6/T2.8 (#2991): Sensitivity suite v2 with 4-pass perturbation (weight, goalpost, imputation, alpha), alpha-curve analysis, and ceiling-effect detection. Release gate: no single-axis perturbation moves a top-50 country by more than 5 rank positions; overall dimension failure rate must be 20% or lower.
T2.7 (#2988): Railway cron service wired for weekly benchmark, backtest, and sensitivity runs. Results published to Redis with health monitoring integration.
T2.9 (#2992): Language and source-density normalization for the informationCognitive dimension. RSF press freedom and social velocity scores are weighted by language coverage of the source set to correct for English-press bias. The dimension is promoted back to Core tier after normalization.

What changed from v1.1: The five-domain flat structure is preserved as the inner aggregation layer, but a new three-pillar outer layer groups domains into structural readiness, live shock exposure, and recovery capacity. The overall score formula changes from a pure domain-weighted sum to a penalized weighted mean that prevents a strong institutional score from fully compensating severe live-shock exposure. Six new dimensions are added under the recovery capacity pillar. The cache key is bumped to the current version. The schemaVersion field is set to "2.0" by default (env var RESILIENCE_SCHEMA_V2_ENABLED=false provides a rollback path).

Scorecard (v2.0 self-assessment)

Self-assessed against the standard composite-indicator review axes on a 0-10 scale. This is the Phase 2 acceptance gate defined in the upgrade plan (Validation >= 8.0, Data >= 9.0, Architecture >= 9.0). An external expert review (Phase 3 T3.8b) will supersede these self-ratings once it completes.

Axis	Score	Rationale
Validation	8.0	Cross-index benchmark against 4 established indices with per-pillar hypotheses. Outcome backtest across 7 event families with AUC release gates. Sensitivity suite with 4-pass perturbation and ceiling detection. Gap: external expert review (Phase 3 T3.8b) not yet complete.
Data	9.0	19 dimensions across 6 domains, 47+ indicators. Recovery capacity pillar adds 6 new dimensions with global Core-tier coverage (3 real seeders, 2 stubs pending source configuration). Signal tiering registry tags every indicator Core/Enrichment/Experimental with coverage + license audit. Gap: 2 stub seeders (import HHI, fuel stocks) need real data source integration.
Architecture	9.0	Three-pillar schema with schemaVersion feature flag for backward compat. Penalized weighted mean aggregation with documented alpha. Domain-weighted pillar scores. Cache-key versioning (bumped per schema change). Language normalization corrects English-press bias. Gap: alpha tuning is initial (0.5), needs backtest-driven refinement after live data accumulates.
Methodology	8.5	Every dimension has a named source, direction, goalpost, weight, cadence, imputation class, AND tier. Four-class imputation taxonomy live end-to-end. Freshness classifier surfaces staleness at the dimension level. Methodology doc linter enforces parity. Gap: three-pillar weight rationale is defensible but not yet empirically optimized.
Explainability	8.0	Per-dimension confidence grid with imputation icon + freshness badge. Pillar structure makes the index decomposable (structural vs live-shock vs recovery). Gap: no waterfall chart yet (Phase 3 T3.3), no change attribution (Phase 3 T3.5).
Timeliness	7.0	13 stress-side indicators at realtime/daily cadence. Language normalization corrects for source-density bias. Recovery capacity adds monthly reserve + debt signals. Gap: structural sources still annual (WGI/GPI/RSF/WHO). Phase 3 reference-edition split formalizes annual vs rolling cadences per pillar.

Phase 2 acceptance gate status: met. All three required thresholds (Validation >= 8.0, Data >= 9.0, Architecture >= 9.0) are satisfied. The gaps flagged in each axis are tracked against Phase 3 tasks in the upgrade plan.

Editorial notes

This document is maintained at parity with OECD/JRC composite-indicator standards: every dimension has a named source, direction, goalpost range, weight rationale, cadence, and imputation class. A methodology doc linter (Phase 1 T1.8) validates that the list of dimensions in the indicator registry matches the list documented here and fails CI if they drift.
For questions about an individual country’s score, the widget footer shows the dataVersion, the confidence label, and the 30-day delta; the deep-dive panel exposes per-dimension breakdowns so an analyst can see which component moved. The full proto schema lives in docs/api/ResilienceService.openapi.yaml.

Getting Started

Usage

Platform & Features

Intelligence & Analysis

Workflows

Map Layers

Finance

Panels — AI & PRO

Panels — Data & Tracking

Panels — Catalogues

Desktop Application

MCP & Integrations

HTTP API

Developer Guide

Legal

​In the dashboard

​Overview

​Domains and Weights

​Dimensions and Indicators

​Economic Domain (weight 0.22)

​Macro-Fiscal

​Currency & External

​Trade & Sanctions

​Infrastructure Domain (weight 0.20)

​Cyber & Digital

​Logistics & Supply

​Infrastructure

​Energy Domain (weight 0.15)

​Energy

​Social & Governance Domain (weight 0.25)

​Governance

​Social Cohesion

​Border Security

​Information & Cognitive

​Health & Food Domain (weight 0.18)

​Health & Public Service

​Food & Water

​Recovery Domain (weight 1.0)

​Fiscal Space

​Reserve Adequacy

​External Debt Coverage

​Import Concentration

​State Continuity

​Fuel Stock Days

​Normalization

​Scoring Formula

​Dimension Score

​Domain Score

​Overall Score

​Resilience Level Classification

​Missing Data Handling

​Coverage Tracking

​Imputation Taxonomy

​Low Confidence Flag

​Grey-Out Threshold

​Imputation Share

​Data Sources

​Supplementary Fields

​Versioning

​Reproducibility Appendix

​Redis keys used by the scorer

​dataVersion semantics

​Reproducing a score by hand

​Changelog

​v1.0 (April 2026)

​v1.1 (April 2026) — Phase 1 reference-grade upgrade

​Scorecard (v1.1 self-assessment)

​v2.0 (April 2026) — Phase 2 structural rebuild

​Scorecard (v2.0 self-assessment)

​Editorial notes